Why Modi’s Hindu nationalism is a harder sell in India’s south

The stage was empty, but the music blared, exhorting people to vote for Rahul Gandhi, as hundreds piled into the outdoor stadium in the city of Hyderabad in India’s south central region.

“Gandhi is moving forward, holding the tricolour flag,” rang out the crackled singing voice from the speakers, while the crowd gathered in the early evening heat, days before India’s fourth phase of voting in an election that continues until June 4.

When Rahul Gandhi finally entered and approached the mic, he waved a copy of India’s constitution to the assembled supporters.

He warned that Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister and his main opponent in the election race, was looking to alter the constitution in a bid to attack India’s secular values. The crowd murmured in agreement. (Modi and his party have denied those allegations.)

Gandhi is the leading face of the Indian National Congress. Though the party once ruled India for many decades after independence, it’s now struggling to maintain relevance, with Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party presiding over India since 2014.

Trying to counter his reign is the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, or INDIA, a group of 27 opposition parties, of which the Congress is the largest. They staunchly oppose what they view as the BJP’s erosion of democratic norms in India, and focus on religious divisions in a country that has secularism constitutionally enshrined.

The BJP has denied that it wants to change the constitution to make India more Hindu-centric, taking pains to distance itself from the MP who first floated the idea ofdoing so if the ruling party were to receive a two-thirds majority.

But the INDIA alliance has other accusations, too — alleging Modi created an unequal playing field to the election by freezing party funds and jailing two opposition leaders, including the popular Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal. The BJP has denied involvement in those events.

And though their chances of winning are slim — the BJP is expected to win a third straight term — the coalition’s best hope is to chip away at Modi’s majority, in regions where the party has failed to gain a foothold: namely, the south.

‘The south is like a different country altogether’

India’s southern states are vastly different from the north, culturally and linguistically, with that divide only deepening with time. The poorer northern states have double the population — therefore increasingly more political clout — but the southern states are on average more prosperous and more educated.

“The south is like a different country altogether,” said Ghanta Chakrapani, a political analyst and sociology professor.

Hours after Gandhi’s rally, Modi also visited Hyderabad, addressing a crowd with a speech peppered with mantras from Hindu scripture. His “idea of India,” he said, was not only about beliefs, but also “an empowered identity” of the country.

Modi’s BJP has been campaigning aggressively in the country’s south, pouring considerable resources into key state races, in a region that has persistently turned its back on the Hindu nationalist party.

But among those states, it only holds a handful of seats in Telangana, none currently in Tamil Nadu, and has never won a seat in Kerala.

Reversing that trend is seen as crucial in the party’s bid to win an even larger majority in Parliament this election. It won’t be easy.

Unlike in the north, where Modi’s Hindi-speaking base is steadfast, the south is resistant to the BJP’s Hindu-nationalist, populist narrative.

People in India’s south don’t appreciate mixing religion with politics, said Chakrapani, and many dread a turn toward a Hindu Rashtra, or Hindu nation-state.

And, he added, Modi’s more pointed attacks on Muslims in this election — in one speech calling them “infiltrators” with “more children” — would not help with his party’s ambitions in the country’s southern states.

“This is a very nasty and a very low-level kind of campaign,” said Chakrapani.

He interpreted the heated rhetoric as a sign, along with low turnout in each phase of voting, that the BJP is concerned with losing ground to the opposition alliance.

“That kind of Hindu provocation, it won’t work anywhere in South India.”

Wins for the Congress Party in the south

Gandhi doesn’t have the reputation as a magnetic orator that Modi does, but he is the heir to India’s most famous political dynasty. The son and grandson of two former prime ministers, who were both assassinated, Gandhi is also the great-grandson of India’s first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru, a staunch defender of Indian secularism.

“The Congress is an old, [established] party. It will exist forever, even as other parties come and go,” said longtime supporter Malaika Sultana, 48.

“The BJP can’t do anything here.”

For some in Hyderabad, which has a significant Muslim population, the Congress Party and its alliance is the only way to go.

“The Congress is doing good work,” said Nagmani, a resident who, like many Indians, only goes by one name. She pointed to a state-level initiative that she loves — free local bus rides for women and transgender people. The party handily won the state election last December in what was seen as a morale boost heading into this spring’s general election.

Many critics initially labelled the opposition coalition as weak and fragmented, plagued by infighting among various regional parties. Gandhi himself has also long been criticized as an ineffectual leader who is no match against Modi and his populist politics.

But some now believe it’s performing better than expected, particularly in the south and in pockets of BJP strongholds like Uttar Pradesh, which may allow the opposition to whittle away at the ruling party’s goal of a larger majority.

“The opposition coalition could have been much stronger, but at least it exists in a significant manner in large parts of India,” said Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, a Delhi-based journalist and author of several books on Modi and India’s Hindu nationalist movement.

For young voters in Telangana like 23-year-old Asim Khan, clashing over religion is at the bottom of the list of issues afflicting India.

Khan would have liked to hear more from candidates about rising inflation and India’s high unemployment rate, where the country’s youth make up nearly 83 per cent of the jobless, according to the International Labour Organization’s latest report. Two in five recent college graduates can’t get work.

“The Congress is responding more [to those issues], rather than the BJP,” Khan said.

A fight for India’s identity

On a recent polling day — the fourth of seven phases across India but the last one involving voters in the south — there was some support for Modi’s BJP.

“Without Modi, nothing can be done,” said retired state bank employee Ranganath Swami. “He can do [it all].”

Modi is considered the favourite to win the election — meaning another five years in office. In an interview with a television station, he predicted his party would have a “clean sweep” of Telangana’s 17 seats. It’s also banking on picking up several seats in Tamil Nadu.

But Gandhi is projecting equal confidence that his opposition alliance can keep the BJP from winning a larger majority, with his consistent warnings that this is no ordinary election, but rather a fight for India’s identity as a country with secularism enshrined in its constitution.

It’s part of Gandhi’s attempt to fashion himself as the only champion of India’s liberal and inclusive values, with a singular focus of tackling the Modi election juggernaut.

For some Hyderabad residents, the vote was a chance to express their distaste for the BJP government and its Hindu-centric vision of India.

“Modi is the enemy of Muslims,” said Latifa Begum, 50.

Modi came to power in 2014 with an election motto that roughly translated to “with everyone, progress for everyone,” but Begum said he had not lived up to that promise.

She says the prime minister has spent his decade in power helping and promoting India’s Hindu population, at the expense of the country’s minorities.

“We need to stop him from winning [again] at all costs.”